Double or Nothing (2025)

I was giving some consideration to the skill mechanic proposed in the previous post; to wit, a baseline +0 mod would result in a straight 2d6 vs. DC10 roll. This has pretty low odds of success (1/6th) compared to the d20 baseline of 1d20-1 being about 45%

So what if we do something with rolling doubles? 5+5 and 6+6 would already make a success, but the other 4 combinations (out of the 36 possible, with 2d6) makes for an 11.11...% outcome; if you add this to the 1/6th chance, it becomes 27.77...%

Now, clearly, based on the numbers in that previous post, we probably wouldn't want to shift all of the other odds up ~11% so probably this mechanic would be limited to when you're only rolling 2d6 on a skill check.

But maybe there's something we could do, using the doubles with attack dice.

If the baseline roll is 3d6 (2 used for attack, 1 used for damage) there are 216 combinations that can result; matching pairs would exist in 36 of those (including triples) 24 of which would be combinations other than [5,5,X] or [6,6,X] ...which again results in 11.11...%

If we go back to another previous post, we laid out the attack math, where a +2 mod resulted in a 68.06% hit chance, and a +1 mod resulted in 52.31%; increasing either of these numbers by ~11% keeps us still well within acceptable hit-chance ranges, which is pretty interesting! The question would be, how do we apply this sort of bonus? A boost of this size actually pretty closely mirrors the usage of "Combat Mastery" in TNP, so it stands to reason that this bonus could apply in similar situations. (The other bonus mechanic in TNP being class dice bonuses, which the sequel mechanics would mirror/mimic by using the d6 pool mechanic.) Also worth mentioning: off the top of my head, it wouldn't change damage-roll outputs very much; only a combination like [4,4,6] would actually produce a meaningful damage boost (by allowing the 6 to be used for damage instead of attack, while still producing a hit.)

I think if the general ethos of the game's mechanics is to roll a pool of multiple dice but ultimately only use 2 of those dice to determine the result, then including something like doubles adds a fun layer to it. Obviously, once we go beyond 3d6 and start to account for a bigger dice pool, the math would get more complicated.

It also recently occurred to me that the previous post basically took the 3d6 math, and put a new slant on it. As mentioned before (when looking to other possible dice mechanics) the ranges for flat modifiers on 3d6 vs. DC10 are extremely narrow; basically only +1/+0/-1. What the previous post did instead, was basically turn the flat modifier into a die pool, using the 3rd die (i.e. 2d6+[highest 1d6, of the pool] instead of "3d6+X"). Having a two-stage skill check roll is still a little bit janky, but I think something like that was sort of inevitable, in a "d6 does everything" mechanical paradigm.

However, by adding doubles to the success pool, we actually decrease the necessity of rolling the dice pool, albeit only by that ~11%. It speeds things up a little, because results like 2+2, 3+3, and 4+4 (which would still mathematically have a chance to succeed, with a 3rd die added to them) are instead just fast-tracked to being successes, bypassing the need for that 2nd-stage of the check.

...

One most post is scheduled before the end of March; to try and keep things on track, it'll likely be out by March 28th at the latest.